基于贝叶斯方法的贵州高原百花水库水体营养盐变化及评价(2014—2018年)     

袁振辉  李秋华  何应  马欣洋  韩孟书  孙荣国  张华俊 《湖泊科学》2019,31(6):1623-1636

为了确定百花水库营养盐变化特征,选取百花水库5个监测点2014年1月-2018年7月共28个月份的水质实测数据,分析溶解氧、高锰酸盐指数、氨氮、总磷和总氮的年际变化特征.采用基于熵权法赋权的贝叶斯理论对5个监测点的水质综合状况进行评价,并结合水库的实际状况,从生态修复、工业污染源、沉积物中营养盐、水库季节性热分层及农业与生活污染源5个方面对其水质变化的影响因素进行分析.结果表明:2014-2018年水体环境波动较大;除总氮外,各污染指标浓度均有不同程度的下降;综合水质后验概率表明百花水库水质有逐渐变差的趋势;总氮和总磷治理应成为百花水库污染治理的主要方面;生态修复工程的开展和工业污染源的削减是百花水库水质转好的主要影响因素,农业与生活污染源的增加是百花水库水质转差的主要影响因素.  相似文献   

三峡水库175 m试验性蓄水期调度运行对洞庭湖蓄水量变化的影响     

付湘  赵秋湘  孙昭华 《湖泊科学》2019,31(6):1713-1725

长江干流与洞庭湖存在复杂的并联型分汇关系,当三峡水库调度改变长江径流过程时,会引起洞庭湖年内槽蓄量的变化,对于洞庭湖地区防洪、水资源配置和水环境保护产生显著的影响.本文建立了枝城至螺山站的荆江-洞庭湖水流模型,利用2008-2017年的三峡水库实际调度日数据,分析有、无三峡水库调度两种情况下洞庭湖槽蓄量的变化过程,同时利用建库前和近期的水位流量关系反映河道过流能力,分析了河道调整的影响.结果表明:由河道调整引起的槽蓄量变化在汛前消落期、汛期、汛末蓄水期和枯水期分别为-3.06%、0.12%、-0.01%和-13.31%.有三峡水库影响情况下,汛前消落期由于荆江"三口"进入洞庭湖的多年平均总径流增加23.94%,洞庭湖出口处城陵矶多年平均水位升高0.53 m,阻碍了洞庭湖出流,洞庭湖多年平均槽蓄量增长13.30%;汛期由于荆江"三口"分流量减少3.54%,城陵矶水位降低0.02 m导致出湖流量增多,因此洞庭湖多年平均槽蓄量减少0.20%;在汛末蓄水期,荆江"三口"分入洞庭湖的多年平均总径流量减少37.18%,城陵矶多年平均水位降低1.33 m,导致出湖流量增多,因而洞庭湖多年平均槽蓄量减少27.74%;在枯水期,荆江"三口"多年平均总径流量增加5.61%,城陵矶多年平均水位上升0.07 m,最终洞庭湖多年平均枯期槽蓄量增加2.96%.  相似文献   

2017年6月16日湖北秭归Ms4.3地震成因初探     

李伟  储日升  王烁帆 《地震》2019,39(3):28-42

北京时间2017年6月16日19时48分, 湖北省秭归县发生M_S4.3地震(震中位置31.06°N, 110.48°E)。 此次地震导致当地160多间建筑物出现不同程度损坏, 100多人生活受到影响, 震区中危岩体出现一定程度破坏。 分析此次地震的震源参数将有助于了解其震源特征和发震机制。 本文首先获取了震中距在3°以内的40个宽频带固定台站的三分量数据, 然后利用FK(Frequency wavenumber)方法计算了在不同深度下Crust2.0模型和改进的1-D模型的格林函数, 分别使用Cut And Paste(CAP)方法反演得到本次地震的震源机制解和深度; 并采用基阶Rayleigh波振幅谱进一步约束了质心深度。 结果表明此次地震的最佳震源机制解的节面Ⅰ: 68°/59°/163°; 节面Ⅱ: 166°/75°/32°, 最佳矩震级为M_W4.3, 最佳深度约为5 km。 对比2013年巴东地震、 2014年秭归地震以及2011年湖北阳新—江西瑞昌地震的震源参数和余震信息, 此次地震有可能是水库诱发地震, 但要判断成因还需进一步研究。  相似文献   

水库温室气体净通量评估模型(G-res Tool)及在长江上游典型水库初步应用     

张斌  李哲  李翀  陈永柏  郭劲松 《湖泊科学》2019,31(5):1479-1488

目前准确量化温室气体排放量已成为气候变化研究和政策制定的关键.在IPCC水库温室气体净通量的概念性框架下，国际水电协会汇总分析了全球223座水库的CO₂和CH₄研究成果，构建了G-res Tool，其可以用于评估已建或待建水库在长时间尺度下的温室气体净通量.本文介绍了G-res Tool模型的基本原理与模型框架，利用模型内置数据库中所涉及的中国长江上游12座典型水库数据进行初步应用分析，12座水库温室气体净通量平均值为88.17 g CO₂e/（m²·a），在全球约7000座水库中所处水平为11.67%，处于低阈值范围.在水库温室气体净通量分析结果中，其他非相关人类活动产生的水库温室气体通量（UAS）在蓄水后总通量（Post）中所占比重远高于蓄水前温室气体通量（Pre）.长江上游水库蓄水后的CH₄和CO₂通量对于温室效应的贡献量相当.通过将G-res Tool模型蓄水后的温室气体通量评估结果和所涉及到的12座水库中已发表的数据对比分析发现，G-res Tool具有简便、适用面广等特点.但G-res Tool毕竟仍为经验性模型，其基本原理和模块设计上的内在缺陷在很大程度上限制了其应用范围并造成了一定的不确定性.对个案水库而言，长期跟踪观测与机理研究仍是未来减少水库温室气体净通量不确定性的关键.  相似文献   

Spatial patch structure and adaptive strategy for desert shrub of Reaumuria soongorica in arid ecosystem of the Heihe River Basin     

Li  Wei  Li  Xiaoyan  Huang  Yongmei  Wang  Pei  Zhang  Cicheng 《地理学报(英文版)》2019,29(9):1507-1526

In many arid ecosystems, vegetation frequently occurs in high-cover patches interspersed in a matrix of low plant cover. However, theoretical explanations for shrub patch pattern dynamics along climate gradients remain unclear on a large scale. This context aimed to assess the variance of the Reaumuria soongorica patch structure along the precipitation gradient and the factors that affect patch structure formation in the middle and lower Heihe River Basin (HRB). Field investigations on vegetation patterns and heterogeneity in soil properties were conducted during 2014 and 2015. The results showed that patch height, size and plant-to-patch distance were smaller in high precipitation habitats than in low precipitation sites. Climate, soil and vegetation explained 82.5% of the variance in patch structure. Spatially, R. soongorica shifted from a clumped to a random pattern on the landscape towards the MAP gradient, and heterogeneity in the surface soil properties (the ratio of biological soil crust (BSC) to bare gravels (BG)) determined the R. soongorica population distribution pattern in the middle and lower HRB. A conceptual model, which integrated water availability and plant facilitation and competition effects, was revealed that R. soongorica changed from a flexible water use strategy in high precipitation regions to a consistent water use strategy in low precipitation areas. Our study provides a comprehensive quantification of the variance in shrub patch structure along a precipitation gradient and may improve our understanding of vegetation pattern dynamics in the Gobi Desert under future climate change.

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Rainfall interception of typical ecosystems in the Heihe River Basin: Based on high temporal resolution soil moisture data   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Yang  Chongyao  Huang  Yongmei  Li  Engui  Li  Zeqing 《地理学报(英文版)》2019,29(9):1527-1547

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Rainfall interception is of great significance to the fully utilization of rainfall in water limited areas. Until now, studies on rainfall partitioning process of...  相似文献   

Feasibility of borehole ambient noise interferometry for permanent reservoir monitoring          下载免费PDF全文

M. Behm 《Geophysical Prospecting》2017,65(2):563-580

The analysis of seismic ambient noise acquired during temporary or permanent microseismic monitoring campaigns (e.g., improved/enhanced oil recovery monitoring, surveillance of induced seismicity) is potentially well suited for time‐lapse studies based on seismic interferometry. No additional data acquisition required, ambient noise processing can be automatized to a high degree, and seismic interferometry is very sensitive to small medium changes. Thus there is an opportunity for detection and monitoring of velocity variations in a reservoir at negligible additional cost and effort. Data and results are presented from an ambient noise interferometry study applied to two wells in a producing oil field in Romania. Borehole microseismic monitoring on three component geophones was performed for four weeks, concurrent with a water‐flooding phase for improved oil recovery from a reservoir in ca. 1 km depth. Both low‐frequency (2 Hz–50 Hz) P‐ and S‐waves propagating through the vertical borehole arrays were reconstructed from ambient noise by the virtual source method. The obtained interferograms clearly indicate an origin of the ambient seismic energy from above the arrays, thus suggesting surface activities as sources. It is shown that ambient noise from time periods as short as 30 seconds is sufficient to obtain robust interferograms. Sonic log data confirm that the vertical and horizontal components comprise first arrivals of P‐wave and S‐waves, respectively. The consistency and high quality of the interferograms throughout the entire observation period further indicate that the high‐frequency part (up to 100 Hz) represents the scattered wave field. The temporal variation of apparent velocities based on first‐arrival times partly correlates with the water injection rate and occurrence of microseismic events. It is concluded that borehole ambient noise interferometry in production settings is a potentially useful method for permanent reservoir monitoring due to its high sensitivity and robustness.  相似文献   

Statistical facies classification from multiple seismic attributes: comparison between Bayesian classification and expectation–maximization method and application in petrophysical inversion          下载免费PDF全文

Dario Grana  Xiaozheng Lang  Wenting Wu 《Geophysical Prospecting》2017,65(2):544-562

We present here a comparison between two statistical methods for facies classifications: Bayesian classification and expectation–maximization method. The classification can be performed using multiple seismic attributes and can be extended from well logs to three‐dimensional volumes. In this work, we propose, for both methods, a sensitivity study to investigate the impact of the choice of seismic attributes used to condition the classification. In the second part, we integrate the facies classification in a Bayesian inversion setting for the estimation of continuous rock properties, such as porosity and lithological fractions, from the same set of seismic attributes. The advantage of the expectation–maximization method is that this algorithm does not require a training dataset, which is instead required in a traditional Bayesian classifier and still provides similar results. We show the application, comparison, and analysis of these methods in a real case study in the North Sea, where eight sedimentological facies have been defined. The facies classification is computed at the well location and compared with the sedimentological profile and then extended to the 3D reservoir model using up to 14 seismic attributes.  相似文献   

基于功能群对比分析黔中普定水库和桂家湖水库浮游植物群落结构特征   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5  

胡月敏  李秋华  朱冲冲  欧腾  李红梅  陈峰峰  高永春  骆兰 《湖泊科学》2018,30(2):403-416

为了解黔中地区浮游植物群落结构特征,同时为了研究功能群对水环境的指示,选取黔中2座典型水库——普定水库和桂家湖水库,分别于2015年的枯水期(1月)和丰水期(8月)进行浮游植物采样分析.结果表明:(1)2座水库营养盐无显著性差异,水动力学参数(水温、混合层深度、透明度、真光层深度、水柱相对稳定性、光的可获得性)存在显著性差异.(2)普定水库共归类出18个功能类群,桂家湖水库共归类出15个功能类群.普定水库优势功能群水期分布特征:枯水期LO→丰水期B+P;桂家湖水库优势功能群水期分布特征:枯水期B+J+Y→丰水期B+J.垂直层面上,普定水库枯水期以甲藻组成的优势功能群LO在三岔街采样点表层藻类生物量达到峰值(18529μg/L),远高于中层和底层水体以及其他采样点,与该点水文特性以及组成LO的甲藻特征有关.丰水期以硅藻组成的功能群P在小河采样点的中层藻类生物量最大(2741μg/L),远高于该点的表层水体及其他采样点,与P类群耐受低光有关.而桂家湖水库由于面积小、水位浅且少有人为干扰,故样点间环境因子差异小,整个水体优势功能群分布高度一致.(3)经RDA分析,水动力学参数、营养盐、p H和电导率是影响普定水库浮游植物群落分布的主要环境因子;桂家湖水库仅水动力学参数(水温和水柱相对稳定性)是主要因子.(4)从浮游植物功能群适宜生境来看,普定水库为富营养水体,桂家湖水库为中到富营养水体.由分析得出隶属于不同水域的2座水库浮游植物群落结构及水环境均存在显著性差异.  相似文献   

基于多源卫星数据的小型水体蓝藻水华联合监测——以天津于桥水库为例   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

房旭  段洪涛  曹志刚  沈明  葛小三 《湖泊科学》2018,30(4):967-978

近年来水体富营养化呈扩张趋势,蓝藻水华不仅在太湖等大型湖泊频发,水面面积较小的天津于桥水库等也形势严峻,亟需加强卫星遥感监测.但是,以往在太湖等业务化使用非常成功的MODIS等卫星数据(约500 m),由于空间分辨率较低,难以满足小型水体的监测要求;而Landsat-8等空间分辨率较高的卫星数据(30 m),通常重返周期较长,无法满足水华高频监测需求.本文以天津市于桥水库(面积约80 km2)为研究区,针对常用的卫星数据,从空间、时间、光谱范围和数据可获取性共4个方面,评价不同卫星数据蓝藻水华监测能力和算法,同时对不同卫星监测结果一致性进行评估.结果表明:(1)筛选出国产HJ-1A\B CCD、GF-1 WFV和美国Landsat-8 OLI这3种卫星波段合适,空间分辨率较高,适用于桥水库蓝藻水华监测,但考虑到其重返周期较长,建议多星联合观测;(2)各个卫星监测结果与卫星影像目视解译结果基本一致,均方根误差和相对误差均分别控制在0.78 km2和4.9%以内;(3)不同卫星监测结果一致性良好,一致性精度达到99.5%;(4)根据历史影像结果,发现于桥水库2016年水质开始呈富营养化,藻华现象在夏、秋两季最为严重.研究表明,针对小型水面水体蓝藻水华监测,利用较高分辨率数据联合监测,是一种有效的替代策略,今后可在更多小型水域推广.  相似文献